Table of Contents
Have we bottomed yet?.................................................................... 4
Yes; in this order: cement, long steel, flat steel, and metals....................4
4Q08-1Q09 likely to be the margins’ trough .................................5
4Q08 likely to be the valuations’ trough...........................................6
Cement: on a steady recovery........................................................ 14
Cement prices rebounding....................................................................14
Higher cement price assumptions ...................................................14
Margins to expand in FY09-10 .......................................................16
Steel: nearing the bottom............................................................... 18
The destocking and restocking story ................................................18
The supply and demand model.........................................................19
We expect a better 2H09..........................................................................22
Metals: hints of stability ................................................................. 24
Have we bottomed yet? ............................................................................24
Demand: the China factor ....................................................................25
Supply: output economics ................................................................26
Copper ..............................................................................................28
Aluminium.......................................................................................30
Deutsche Bank metal price forecasts .............................................32
Company pages ............................................................................... 33
China Building Materials................................................................. 34
Anhui Conch Cement ...................................................................... 42
Zijin Group. ...................................................................................... 50
Chalco............................................................................................... 58
Jiangxi Copper................................................................................. 66
China Moly ....................................................................................... 74
Angang Steel.................................................................................... 80
Maanshan......................................................................................... 90
Monthly data.................................................................................... 99
Cement ............................................................................................99
Steel..................................................................................................100
Metals..............................................................................................103