刘强

中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所

 

 

[摘要] 本文对投资率和最优增长路径的关系进行研究。通过动态最优化方法推导出了一个最优路径的数学描述，并且利用国际比较的实证研究包括美国、日本、韩国、新加坡、中国的经济数据进行验证,并且在此基础上研究结果给出中国确定今后投资率的考虑因素。本文的结论是，依靠高投资率维持的增长路径，由于必将压制国内消费需求，并导致高存货水平和对出口的依赖，因而是不可持续的，中国应该逐渐摆脱这样的增长路径，转向依赖国内消费需求。

关键词：投资率 增长路径 动态最优化

JEL：C61, E22, O21

 

Research on the Relationship between Investment Ratio and Optimal Growth Path

 

Abstract: This paper discusses the relationship between investment ratio and optimal growth path. By using the dynamic optimal progress this paper induces a mathematical model between them. An international comparative positive analysis using data of US, Japan, Korea, Singapore and China testifies the model very well. The conclusion of this paper is that the growth path which depend on high investment ratio must depress the domestic consumption and will derive a high level of inventory and an dependence on export, and cannot last long. China should avoid this trap and turn to the growth path more dependent on domestic consumption.

Key words: investment ratio; growth path; dynamic optimal progress

JEL：C61, E22, O21