Table of Contents
Valuation check ........................................................................3
Key markers..............................................................................6
Key trades .................................................................................7
Risks........................................................................................21
Hindsight trades .....................................................................26
Market drivers.........................................................................28
Macro Monitor.........................................................................29
Global emerging markets model portfolio by country ........32
Composite valuation indicators ............................................34
EMBIG100................................................................................38
Consensus asset allocation ..................................................44
South Korea: Waning of uncertainties .................................46
China: Short term consolidation - long-term bull market ...48
Taiwan: Riding a rising regional tide....................................50
Brazil: Pause in monetary easing ….....................................52
Russia: Liquidity conditions improving ...............................54
South Africa: Secular growth drivers intact.........................56
India: Too good to last…? .....................................................58
Mexico: Growth concerns easing .........................................60
Malaysia: Lagging behind its regional peers .......................62
Poland: Keeping an eye on input costs................................64
Indonesia: Hail to the new loan cycle ...................................66
Turkey: Inflation subsiding....................................................68
Thailand: More than just an election play ............................70
Philippines: Structural story remains intact ........................72
Pakistan: Politically uncertain but fundamentally sound ...74
Scorecard notes .....................................................................76
Emerging Market Dashboards...............................................78
JPMorgan Emerging Markets Strategy Team……….………...104