Contents

    Introduction    vii

    Setting the Stage    xiii

    Part One: Perspective

    1. The Core Idea    3

    2. Autobiography of a Failed Philosopher    12

    3. The Theory of Reflexivity     25

    4. Reflexivity in Financial Markets    51

    Part Two:The Current Crisis and Beyond

    5. The Super-Bubble Hypothesis    81

    6. Autobiography of a Successful Speculator    106

    7. My Outlook for 2008     122

    8. Some Policy Recommendations    142

    Conclusion    153

    Acknowledgments    161

    About the Author    163