Part One. Introduction
1. The Consolidation Landscape 1
A review of the biggest decade for mergers and acquisitions
reveals the underlying characteristics of the good and bad
deals—and the lessons they offer.
2. Finding Order in Chaos: Rules and Logic
of the Endgame 12
There is a pattern to industry consolidation—an S curve—
that all major industries follow. This chapter sets the foundation
of the curve and its four stages.
Part Two. The Four Stages of the Endgame
3. The Opening Stage 22
All industries begin in Stage 1: there is little to no market
concentration and companies race to stake their territorial
claims.
4. The Scale Stage 42
Size begins to matter in Stage 2. Growth, through both
internal and external strategies, becomes paramount as
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companies establish market dominance.
5. The Focus Stage 64
In Stage 3, the major players have emerged and formed
their empires, but with acquisition options increasingly limited,
growth strategies must take a new twist.
6. The Balance and Alliance Stage 80
Only a few players will ultimately dominate their industries
in Stage 4 as concentration rates reach as high as 90%.
Industry titans reign, but the threat of being toppled is constant.
Part Three. New Imperatives and
Future Outcomes
7. CEO Strategies for Endgames 96
Mastering the Endgames curve requires insight and knowhow
from the CEO and the Board. Moving from one stage to
another is particularly treacherous, and the senior management
team must anticipate the dangers.
8. The Stock Market Connection 117
Stock prices give companies acquisition currency; acquisitions,
in turn, drive stock prices. The connection to industry
consolidation is clear—as is the need to take advantage of it.
9. The Endgames Vision of 2010 132
New industry giants, a skyrocketing stock market, the first
US$1 trillion merger: these could be just some of the sights
along the road to 2010. Plan your route accordingly.
Appendix: Endgames Methodology and M&A
Transactions 1988 to 2001 155
The Endgames methodology is explained in detail and a
database of more than 1,800 of the largest mergers and
acquisitions from 1988 to 2001 is included.
Index 231