德意志银行关于最新光伏补贴政策的预测说明。
3Q and 2H10 guidance – strong
For companies that give quarterly guidance we expect bullish 3Q outlooks, and
anticipate full-year guidance to remain intact or increase; we have already seen full
year guidance increased for some Chinese and European solar PV companies. We
expect modest module ASP declines in 3Q10, with ASPs potentially stabilizing in
4Q anticipating FIT cuts in early 2011. We expect polysilicon prices to decline
modestly through 2H10. 2H10 is clearly stronger than anticipated several months
ago, and 2H10 outlooks could provide a boost to company stocks.
2011 outlook – high probability that an oversupply will manifest
With a strong 2010 installation forecast (e.g. >11GWp (DB), with some estimates
as high as 14GWp to 15GWp), we believe growth in 2011 will be modest at best.
With substantial manufacturing capacity coming on line through the year, we
believe the probability of a module oversupply emerging in 2011 is high. The
longer an oversupply takes to manifest, the less severe it will likely be. We do not
expect to hear a great deal of commentary or forecasts on 2011.
Coverage company stocks
We expect 2Q10 and near-term strength in Germany to most positively impact
First Solar. We believe that should an oversupply manifest in 2011, the pure play
solar PV companies best positioned would be those with strong downstream
businesses (e.g., First Solar, SunPower). We believe the business model latitude
to shift module sales from the channel to captive system installations provides the
only effective insulation in a module oversupply situation.