China Transportation Chartbook
Key Trends to Watch in 2010
􀂾 Thanks to the low base effect, a meaningful recovery in China exports since
4Q09 (+0.2% YoY from -20% in 1Q-3Q09) could continue into 1H10 and drive
shipping volumes and port throughput rebound. Speculations on iron ore price
hike could temporarily support dry bulk demand and BDI. Mandatory phaseout
of single-hull vessels suggest tight capacity growth and recovery in tanker
rates.
􀂾 Air traffic could recover strongly (above 15%) on non-domestic routes,
thanks to a global recovery from a low base in 2009, further developments in
direct-link, as well as specific events such as the Shanghai Expo and
Guangzhou Asian Games. While domestic air traffic could continue to grow
steadily (~13%) on robust domestic economy, HSR (High Speed Rail) could
increasingly pose a threat.
􀂾 Rail cargo volume growth should gradually accelerate as more capacity is
released from the ongoing construction boom. Coal delivery volumes should
rebound on the back of an export manufacturing revival in coastal areas in the
South/Southeast China.
􀂾 We forecast global shipbuilding new orders to recover by 27% from 33mn
DWT in 2009 to 42mn DWT in 2010, but still 55% below the historical average
of over 90mn DWT per annum.
􀂾 Container manufacturers (CIMC and Singamas) experienced strong QoQ
volume recovery, and industry production volume has improved to flattish
growth in November versus a significant drop of -79% YoY in 1H09.
􀂾 We caution on risks from any severe tightening measures by the
government to cool overheating and combat high-property prices, which would
indirectly affect overall transportation demand in China.



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