【出版时间及名称】：2010年5月英国电力行业研究报告
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：89
【目录或简介】：

Fundamental, Industry, Thematic, Thought Leading
The new government's challenge is to rewrite market rules to cut carbon
emissions at acceptable prices, but our analysis shows that one-third of power
stations will be loss-making by 2013, unless action is taken to keep the lights on.
We believe a new payment for capacity will be introduced, leading to a revaluation
of power stations at the expense of retailing margins. Commitments to network
growth should also lift the valuations of regulated businesses. Investors should
Buy SSE, Drax, and National Grid and Hold Centrica and International Power.
Deutsche Bank AG/London
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Fundamental: long-term carbon policies risk a short-term capacity crunch
We have undertaken a bespoke analysis of the UK power market to 2020,
modeling capacity, output, emissions, costs, prices, and profitability. We find that
the wave of new low-carbon generation will undercut the profits of existing fossilfueled
stations. Higher carbon and lower gas prices than expected will accelerate
this trend, leaving coal stations loss-making from 2013 under current market rules.
Industry: the UK energy market rules are about to be rewritten
The main political parties and the regulator have all indicated their intention to
reform the UK energy market. A new payment for generation capacity has already
been discussed. We believe a new mechanism will be introduced from 2013,
ensuring enough power stations are kept open to keep the lights on.
Thematic: value to shift from retailing to power stations
A capacity payment should secure a new revenue stream for power stations,
increasing the value of companies with upstream assets. However, we expect
energy retailers to be forced to absorb much of the cost, squeezing margins on
the customer businesses. Meanwhile, we see accelerated network growth to
connect low-carbon generation, leading to a re-rating of the regulated businesses.
Thought leading: the UK to soon see a capacity payment for generation
The market is concerned about the collapse in fossil generation margins but has
not factored in the impact of the policy response this is likely to trigger. Instead of
looking simply at the impact of policy on industry costs and margins, we look at
the way industry margins will drive policy.
Buy SSE, Drax, and National Grid; Hold Centrica and International Power
We recently transferred coverage of Centrica, International Power, National Grid,
and SSE from James Brand to Martin Brough. We upgrade the rating on SSE from
a Hold to a Buy and keep our Buy recommendations for Drax and National Grid.
We downgrade Centrica and International Power from Buy to Hold
recommendations. The key risk to our recommendations on Drax and SSE would
be the lack of a policy response to low margins, with integrated companies crosssubsidizing
generation to maintain oversupply despite low prices. National Grid
and SSE might be adversely affected by an unfavorable change to network
regulation proposed by Ofgem. Centrica would benefit from a rally in UK gas
prices, passed through to customers. International Power might be the subject of
an offer from Gdf Suez. This report changes ratings, target prices, and/or
estimates for several companies under coverage. For a detailed listing of these
changes, see Figure 6 Page 6.

Table of Contents
Executive summary ........................................................................... 3
Outlook ....................................................................................................................................3
Valuation ..................................................................................................................................4
Risks ........................................................................................................................................4
Why the sector is unloved ................................................................ 5
Sector is unloved – sector valuation .........................................................................................5
UK margins appear poor or risky...............................................................................................7
Fitting a pint into a half pint pot?.............................................................................................11
Political risk .............................................................................................................................12
Political priorities............................................................................. 13
Policy context.........................................................................................................................13
Destination known? ................................................................................................................14
Prices: getting more investment from current revenues ........................................................15
Capital costs and control.........................................................................................................17
Policy outputs, market prices......................................................... 19
What, where, and when?........................................................................................................19
Closures – coal, oil, nuke, CCGTs............................................................................................21
Renewables ............................................................................................................................23
Nuke and CCS new build ........................................................................................................25
CCGT – filling the capacity gap ...............................................................................................26
Commodity prices...................................................................................................................28
Oil & gas ................................................................................................................................29
Coal........................................................................................................................................30
Carbon ...................................................................................................................................31
Merit orders and generation ...................................................................................................33
Prices and spreads under current market rules.......................................................................34
A capacity crunch?..................................................................................................................36
Policy instruments........................................................................... 38
Important institutions ..............................................................................................................39
Stated policies........................................................................................................................40
Market reform – a payment for generation capacity? .............................................................43
Other upstream mechanisms .................................................................................................46
Supply ....................................................................................................................................48
Networks ...............................................................................................................................51
Valuation .......................................................................................... 56
Company positioning in the sector and impact of changes ....................................................57
Earnings and dividends ...........................................................................................................58
Timings and news flow...........................................................................................................60
Centrica ............................................................................................ 62
Drax Group Plc................................................................................. 66
International Power......................................................................... 70
National Grid PLC ............................................................................ 74
Scottish & Southern........................................................................ 78