【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月美国石化行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：36
        【目录或简介】：

We made two secular argument shifts going from under-weight to neutral US
refining 1) CO2 cap-&-trade will not be a tax in the foreseeable future, and 2)
excess refineries were being shut down faster, with better industry discipline, than
we had feared. A clear conclusion of the conference was that refiners are indeed
running to stay cash positive on a refinery-by-refinery basis. But only when a major
cash call - turnaround or investment - comes up will they finally shut. For profits,
US oil demand must recover. The kicker: an oil product import fee.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Forecast Change
Companies featured
Valero Energy (VLO.N),USD18.06 Hold
2008A 2009E 2010E
EPS (USD) 4.99 -3.43 1.31
P/E (x) 7.9 – 13.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 4.6 13.3 5.6
Sunoco (SUN.N),USD27.05 Hold
2008A 2009E 2010E
EPS (USD) 7.87 -0.29 1.62
P/E (x) 5.7 – 16.7
EV/EBITDA (x) 3.5 5.8 4.5
Tesoro Corporation (TSO.N),USD13.57 Buy
2008A 2009E 2010E
EPS (USD) 2.02 -0.77 1.17
P/E (x) 11.0 – 11.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.0 9.3 4.4
Marathon Oil (MRO.N),USD32.14 Hold
2008A 2009E 2010E
EPS (USD) 6.36 1.66 3.04
P/E (x) 6.8 19.3 10.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 3.8 4.8 4.0
Alon USA (ALJ.N),USD7.35 Hold
2008A 2009E 2010E
EPS (USD) -0.09 -1.53 0.31
P/E (x) – – 23.3
EV/EBITDA (x) – 29.7 7.5
CVR Energy (CVI.N),USD7.39 Buy
2008A 2009E 2010E
EPS (USD) 1.29 1.07 1.26
P/E (x) 12.9 6.9 5.9
EV/EBITDA (x) 8.4 4.1 3.9
Delek US (DK.N),USD7.55 Buy
2008A 2009E 2010E
EPS (USD) 0.60 -0.18 0.62
P/E (x) 17.1 – 12.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.2 5.8 4.5
Frontier Oil (FTO.N),USD13.21 Buy
2008A 2009E 2010E
EPS (USD) 1.16 -0.21 1.07
P/E (x) 19.7 – 12.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 12.2 5.9 5.3
Holly Corp. (HOC.N),USD26.67 Hold
2008A 2009E 2010E
EPS (USD) 2.30 1.06 2.73
P/E (x) 14.9 25.2 9.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 9.1 10.6 6.9
Western Refining Inc (WNR.N),USD5.17 Hold
2008A 2009E 2010E
EPS (USD) 1.71 -0.06 0.58
P/E (x) 6.9 – 8.9
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.8 5.8 6.0
This report changes estimates for several
companies under coverage. For a detailed
listing of these changes, see page 10.
Global Markets Research Company
I’m not negative, I’m realistic
You can't get a more negative group of CEOs about their own industry than
refiners, and initial chat from our DB Boston refining summit was: “it is very tough
indeed out there”. West Coast margins are at all time lows. 500-700 kbd of excess
capacity in Padd 1 (East Coast). Padd 3 (Gulf Coast) is still overhanging and CEOs
complain that capital markets - particularly debt - continue to prop up weaklings.
Fingers are pointed to unprofitable refineries that keep running. However no
individual refiner admits to doing this, and it is clear that almost everyone is
operating at low levels of utilisation in order to maintain cash positive operations
on a refinery-by-refinery basis; some refineries that seem to be losing money may
be making product to serve wider needs, such as XOM for chemical/wholesale,
and Marathon at Texas City for its wider network needs. The announcement
during the conference that Shell is converting Montreal to a terminal was another
encouraging example of rationalisation in the face of losses.
The capital keeps getting sucked in by regulations that keep coming
But even if refiners are disciplined on a cash cost basis, the industry continues to
be unable to truly starve capital, with no refiner having recorded capex below DDA
in recent years, and even after the aggressive capex cuts of the past year, capex
still exceeds DDA for 2010. The reason for that is the ongoing requirement to
meet environmental regulations which, even if they have been mitigated in terms
of CO2 risk, continue to emerge; on the day of the conference the EPA announced
lower smog/ozone limits that the industry had successfully fought off under the
Bush administration.
Give me a call on the economy (see Figure 9)
The discipline with low imports is good news, so still the key is demand, and
chatter among refiners was that we have improved to 1%-2% growth this year vs
flat in q4. That is the right trend, and should get better if the economy gets going.
Risks and rewards- it is a question of when the market is TOO negative
Best relative to expectations was probably niche play CVR Coffeyville. Their crude
flexibility and stable mid con markets, + really good fertiliser outlook, puts them in
relatively good shape. Delek is an interesting small cap growth play in convenience
stores. Holly had the best story in terms of newsflow and potential upside from
the consolidation they did in 2009. Frontier by contrast seems for now to be
purely a play on the heavy-light spread; ultimately not dissimilar to TSO, VLO,
MRO, and COP, that play is all about demand. ALJ had the toughest sell. Risks to
demand are the biggest issue: terrorism, weak economy or more tax
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