Petrochemical Industry
A cautiously optimistic 2010 outlook
Oversupply assuaged: While we still expect global petrochemical players to face oversupply issues in 2010, we are cautiously optimistic on the profit outlook for Taiwanese players. We expect Taiwanese petrochemical companies to maintain their margins and grow earnings on a YoY basis because of carefully controlled capacity utilization and rising levels of demand due to the continuing global economic recovery.
Earnings up 10-20% YoY in 2010F: We forecast Taiwanese petrochemical producers’ 2010 earnings to grow between 10-20% YoY, with higher earnings in 1H10 than in 2H10 owing to 1) cold weather in China raising the demand for most petrochemical products and causing supply shortages at the beginning of the year; 2) a number of annual maintenance shutdowns scheduled for 2Q10 limiting supply; 3) Taiwan players’ favorable position in China thanks to improving cross-strait relations; and 4) newly-added capacity in the Middle East coming online in 2H10. We believe demand from China will be the main catalyst for Taiwan petrochemical producers’ earnings in 2010.
Oil prices to remain stable: We maintain our expectation of stable oil prices in 2010 and 2011, and make only minor adjustments to our oil price forecast to reflect slightly higher oil prices in Jan-Feb and recent USD appreciation. We believe the price of oil will inch upwards without any severe fluctuations over the next two years. For more details on this, please refer to our November 20, 2009, report “Oil Industry Outlook - USD depreciation supporting oil prices”.
A long-term structural change ahead – going East: We expect to see structural changes going forward, with Western players losing their cost advantages and demand from emerging markets becoming stronger. As such, we see the future focus of the petrochemical market shifting from West to East.
本文来自: 人大经济论坛 详细出处参考：http://www.pinggu.org/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=742668&page=1&fromuid=455249