【出版时间及名称】：2010年中国电力行业展望
【作者】：瑞士信贷
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：47
【目录或简介】：
Re-rating along with rebooting. We remain bullish on IPPs, as we expect
a tariff hike in mid-2010 with more developments on tariff reform in 2010,
when the government is due to finalise its 12th Five Year Plan (FYP). NDRC
again mentioned the coal-electricity price linkage on December 2009 (for the
first time since mid-2006 when it was suspended) which may indicate the
possibility of relaunching the linkage. We believe in 1H10 the conditions may
be met, as: 1) coal prices have risen more than enough to trigger the
linkage; 2) CPI may be in a more favourable range; 3) power supply may be
tight in some regions; and 4) IPP margins are too low to be cut further. If
necessary the government may ask power grids to subsidise IPPs again, in
our view. In the meantime, we understand from NDRC’s public consultation
that there will be more developments on tariff reform in 2010-15 and, based
on our analysis, IPPs tend to outperform during active reform periods.
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2008 will not be repeated. We believe that even the worst case scenario for
IPPs in 2010 will still be better than that in 2008, as: 1) average tariffs in
2010 are expected to be 9-13% higher than 2008; 2) contract coal will
contribute more in 2010 than 2008 (IPPs signed 1.7 bn tonnes coal contracts
for 2010, more than 100% of total need); 3) the recent surge in the spot coal
price was more driven by seasonalities and there may be downside
potential; 4) the government has learnt its lesson with more influence on coal
industry from consolidations and 5) IPPs are now more diversified with non
coal-fired power capacity and upstream exposures than previously.
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Prefer CRP, NEUTRAL on Datang. We prefer CRP for attractive valuations,
earnings growth, and superior management capability. We initiate coverage
of Datang with a NEUTRAL rating, given unattractive valuations with
concerns about its huge capex in the non-power business, even though its
earnings are expected to grow in 2010. We also like HNP and CPID. |
