西班牙风电行业研究报告2009年7月(德意志银行)
介绍
Table of Contents
Executive summary ........................................................................... 3
Outlook ...........................................................................................3
Valuation ...........................................................................................4
Risks ...........................................................................................5
A view on wind in the US ................................................................. 6
Excerpts from the US Congressional Research Service report on wind in the US......6
Worldwide positioning of the US wind market.............................. 9
The US is quickly catching up ........................................................9
The position of wind in the US energy markets ........................... 11
Fast growth but low penetration......................................................11
What will drive US growth? ........................................................... 16
A view into US energy policy ........................................................16
American Recovery and Reinvestment Act 2009.................................16
Changing the micro-economics of a wind project.................................16
Transmission infrastructure upgrade in the US..........................17
American Clean Energy and Security Act 2009............................18
ACES bill – RPS mandate ..............................................................20
The US wind market ....................................................................... 21
Some states are better than others for investing in wind power...........21
Economics of a US wind farm ........................................................ 29
ITC or PTC? Not only a matter of IRR… ....................................29
Financial implications of a Clean Energy Act ................................ 32
Impact of the RPS requirements on renewable installation ................32
Impact of the CO2 cap-and-trade system ...........................................35
Concerns: just a market for Americans? ..........................................37
Players in the US market ................................................................ 38
The players.......................................................................................40
Analysis of the pipeline ........................................................................41
How to benefit from the US wind market..................................... 44
Ranking the companies by the information we have ....................44
Impact on our DCF Valuation: The pipeline is worth more..........47
Iberdrola Renovables Investment Thesis ...................................... 51
Outlook ..........................................................................................51
Valuation ........................................................................................51
Risks .............................................................................................51
EDP Renovaveis Investment Thesis ............................................... 53
Outlook ..........................................................................................53
Valuation ....................................................................................53
Risks .............................................................................................53
Appendix I: Understanding how we value windfarms................. 55
Appendix II: DCF analysis for windfarms in US ............................ 57
Appendix III: M&A wind transactions table .................................. 59
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