Contents

Summary 3
I— Negative impact from financial crisis –
situation is starting to improve 7
􀁑 Project financing was dead…but is slowly resuscitating 7
􀁑 Brand is becoming more important than ever to obtain project financing 7
􀁑 …and CAPEX financing as well: financing is not accessible to everybody 8
􀁑 Who's investing in solar in this recession? 9
II— Falling prices will ultimately spawn demand 11
􀁑 Increasing IRR in Germany - the most important market 2009 11
􀁑 Grid parity is coming closer 13
􀁑 Near-term, demand will be subsidy driven 16
III— A shakeout before things get better – the survivors are the
winners 18
􀁑 Things have changed: the question now is, who can sell their products? 18
􀁑 Fall in demand led to overcapacity and reduced profits 18
􀁑 Inventory sell-offs at dumping prices 18
􀁑 The consequence: shakeouts and M&A 20
􀁑 The survivors will be the winners – we favour fully
integrated players with strong brand names like SolarWorld and REC 21
IV— Political support – stronger than ever 22
􀁑 Climate change – it hasn't stopped for the financial crisis 22
􀁑 Energy independence and diversification is on the agenda 22
􀁑 Attractive subsidies all over the world for renewable energy 23
􀁑 Renewable energy – job creation engine 29
􀁑 Conclusion: subsidies will remain 29
V— Correlation to oil price is a fact 30
􀁑 Oil price – strong correlation 30
􀁑 High beta stocks 31
VI— Companies – investment cases 33
􀁑 Valuation overview 33
􀁑 Estimate changes 33
􀁑 Company investment cases 33