Contents
Selective value amid lacklustre sector fundamentals 4
Insulated PPAs imply limited leverage to recovery 4
Domestic capacity: limited scope for growth 4
Pipeline matters 4
Southeast Asia an increasingly congested market 5
Declining input costs, a selective catalyst 5
Stock preferences 6
Asia ex-Japan utilities universe 8
Sector valuation comparison 9
Thai IPP P/E and P/B ratios 9
Thailand power sector P/E and P/B summary 10
Recent trading patterns 10
Regional price-earnings comparison 11
Regional price-to-book comparison 11
Regional dividend yield comparison 11
Demand: sharply lower 13
Fragile political economy 13
Output declines have bottomed, utilisation remains low 13
Volumes to shadow manufacturing sector 14
IPPs are insulated from demand risk by PPAs 16
SPPs exposed, but most leveraged to recovery 16
Limited scope for capacity-driven growth 18
Planning forecasts pared 18
Scope for further revisions to capacity pipeline 19
Surprises from latest round of IPP bidding 20
Increased emphasis on SPPs, VSPPs and renewable energy 21
A key growth node for Thai IPPs? 24
Other regional forays: Southeast Asia a crowded trade 25
Growth strategy: a bird in the hand worth a flock in the bush 26
Financial analysis and comparison 27
Appendix I: key assumptions 29
Appendix II: industry overview 30
Key market participants 31
Summary of electricity pricing structures 34
Industry regulation and planning 39
Appendix III: sector capacity breakdown 40
Latest company views
Glow Energy Public Co 42
Electricity Generating 70
Ratchaburi Electricity Generating 89