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日本电力行业研究报告2008年1月(德意志银行)

文件格式:Pdf 可复制性:可复制 TAG标签: 电力 日本 德意志银行 2008年1月 点击次数: 更新时间:2009-11-18 09:41
介绍

Investment thesis and valuation
We are Marketweight on the electric power sector
We initiate coverage of the electric power industry and are Marketweight on the sector. We
also begin company coverage with Hold ratings for Tokyo Electric Power (TEP), Chubu
Electric Power (CEP), and Kansai Electric Power (KEP).
The electric power sector has increased its dominance within the energy industry, which
includes oil and gas companies, and has directly benefited from sharp increases in energy
costs, including soaring crude oil prices. Although growth in demand stalled briefly in the first
half of the decade from 2000-2010, we believe the industry is back on a path to stable
growth in demand for electric power.
While it is true that concerns about regulatory changes involving total deregulation of the
industry or revisions to transmission charges, as well as the possibility of charges for CO2
emissions, may cloud the business environment and potentially weigh on these companies’
earnings over the short-term, we believe that over the medium- to long-term these
developments will not severely handicap the companies’ ability to remain competitive.
Operations of all reactors at TEP’s Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power plant remain suspended
due to the July 2007 Chuetsu-Oki earthquake, and as inspections continue, we believe
suspension will continue until the end of FY2008.
For Kansai Electric, following the announcement of its business plan and earnings forecasts,
we think signs of an upturn in fundamentals that are not fully factored into the stock now will
be gradually priced in but that some time will be needed for the positive outlook to emerge.
The outlook is murky for Tokyo Electric because of its nuclear reactor shutdown and Chubu
Electric due to questions about the extent of price reductions, and we assign Hold ratings to
these companies.
Valuation
Given that earnings are in a volatile stage, we consider P/E to be a good metric for valuing
shares. Although the electric power industry is often raised as an example of stability when
talking about dividend yields, the correlation between long-term interest rates (here, the yield
on 10-year government bonds) and electric power sector shares is not that large. This does
not mean that dividend payments alone determine share prices, but rather that the potential
for dividend reductions is so low that shares sometimes become attractive as defensive
investments depending on the market environment, with dividend payments acting as a
benchmark for expected yields. Consequently, when P/E ratios look too high and an
inappropriate valuation metric, we use dividend yields for valuing shares.
In our valuation, we have chosen to exclude levels from late 2006 and early 2007, a period
during which expectations of higher shareholder returns and aggressive media exposure by
some foreign investors led to share prices rising to levels at which future dividend payments
of ¥80-¥100/share would have been expected. In light of developments since then (large
declines in TEP’s earnings and the announcement of CEP’s dividend policy), we believe such
levels are not likely to be reached anytime soon.

Risk Factors
Risk factors include fluctuations in crude oil prices and foreign exchange rates; changes in the
business environment, such as economic trends; changes in temperature and climate, which
could affect water flow rates; the impact of pension fund management on personnel costs;
and booking of additional costs to strengthen facilities against earthquakes, additional nuclear
power plant-related costs, CO2 emission-related taxes, and other costs required for
companies to comply with regulatory changes, such as further deregulation of the electric
power market. We also see downside from higher fuel procurement costs and operational
risks (including violation of laws) leading to suspension of plant operations.

Table of Contents
Investment thesis and valuation ...................................................... 3
We are Marketweight on electric power sector .......................................................................3
Valuation ..................................................................................................................................3
Risk Factors ..............................................................................................................................4
Changes in earnings structure.......................................................... 5
Fixed assets not point of focus.................................................................................................5
Changes in electric power resource investment responsible for ups and downs in capex and
repair costs ...............................................................................................................................5
Industry cost structure changed to meet deregulation .............................................................6
Fuel Cost Adjustment System ................................................................................................10
Deregulation of electric power market.......................................... 12
Deregulation of electric power market after 1995 ..................................................................12
Deregulation was successful ..................................................................................................13
Characteristics of electric power business ................................... 14
Electric power a steady growth sector ...................................................................................14
Electric power a network industry requiring central controls ..................................................15
Electric power an environment-friendly energy sector............................................................15
Nuclear power generation .............................................................. 17
Low utilization rates for nuclear power plants over protracted period....................................17
Utilization rates were around 80% until the beginning of 2000; we expect current rates to
stay low, owing partially to revisions to standards for earthquake reinforcement ..................17
Nuclear power's extremely low CO2 emissions compared with thermal plants may make
them crucial part of plan to reduce emissions ........................................................................18
Conclusions...................................................................................... 20
Company
Tokyo Electric Power (9501) ...............................................................................................22
Chubu Electric Power (9502)...............................................................................................39
Kansai Electric Power (9503) ..............................................................................................57

 

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