高盛：中国消费品行业研究报告2009年1月

Prefer defensiveness and cost benefits; upgrade Tsingtao, Mengniu
Source of opportunity
We believe demand for most consumer staples is likely to continue to
grow in 2009, albeit slowing down mildly on the back of a weak economy.
In our view, the key investment themes for staples in 2009 are: (1)
Defensive demand. We believe basic daily consumer goods with lower
unit prices, such as milk and beer, are likely to see more defensive demand
than discretionary products like premium spirits and wines. (2) Benefits
from lower input costs. With commodity prices coming off their peak
levels, most staples companies are likely to see margin benefits, in our
view. Our analysis suggests low-margin participants are more sensitive to
input costs. (3) Recovery in milk consumption. Demand for dairy
products has been improving after being hit hard by the milk
contamination scandal in September 2008 and is now back to about 70%
of the pre-scandal level. Investment opportunities are likely to re-emerge
in the dairy sector, in our view, as consumer confidence returns.
Consumer staples trade at a higher premium in a bear market
Our analysis suggests that China consumer staples’ valuation premium vs. the
market (average 59% for the Hong Kong market, 67% for the A-share market)
tends to increase during a bear market and shrink during a bull market. As the
GS Global ECS Research team maintains its cautious market stance on China in
1H2009, we expect staples’ relatively high premium vs. the market to continue.
Want Want and Tsingtao Brewery (H) on our Conviction Buy List
Want Want remains our top pick in 2009 for its robust growth with its niche
position, its high margin, and its attractive valuation vs. its peers. We also
upgrade Tsingtao (H) from Neutral to Buy and add it to our Conviction Buy
List, as we believe demand for beer is unlikely to slow further from an
already low base in 2008 and the company is more sensitive to input cost
declines, offering potential upside to its margin outlook. We adjust our 12-
month target prices by a range of 0%-58%.
Upgrade Mengniu Dairy to Buy and Yili Industrial to Neutral
Milk demand recovery is on track, with consumers now more willing to
pay for premium products. We expect a better product mix and softening
raw milk price to increase visibility on 2009 earnings, which may help
rebuild investor confidence and drive a re-rating on Mengniu.
Table of contents
2009: Stay with defensive demand and cost benefits 2
Mild demand slowdown expected during downward cycle 4
Lower input costs provide margin upside 7
Valuation: Staples trade at a higher premium in a bear market 9
Want Want: Robust growth, lower valuation, maintain on Conviction Buy List 10
Beer: Cost benefits in 2009; upgrade Tsingtao (H) to Buy add to Conviction Buy List 11
Milk: Demand recovery on track, better product mix; upgrade Mengniu to Buy and Yili to Neutral 14
Spirits and wines: More exposed to macro weakness; stay positive over the long term 17
Disclosures 33