Chapter 1 : The Apprenticeship of an Empirical Skeptic 3 Chapter 2: Yevgenia's Black Swan 23
Chapter 4: One Thousand and One Days, or How Not to Be a Sucker 38 Chapter 5: Confirmation Shmonfirmation! 51 Chapter 6: The Narrative Fallacy 62 Chapter 7: Living in the Antechamber of Hope 85 Chapter 8: Giacomo Casanova's Unfailing Luck: The Problem of Silent Evidence 100 Chapter 9: The Ludic Fallacy, or The Uncertainty of the Nerd 122 Chapter 10: The Scandal of Prediction 137 Chapter 11 : How to Look for Bird Poop 165 Chapter 12: Epistemocracy, a Dream 190 Chapter 13: Appelles the Painter, or What Do You Do if You Cannot Predict? 201 Chapter 14: From Mediocristan to Extremistan, and Back 215 Chapter 15: The Bell Curve, That Great Intellectual Fraud 229 Chapter 16: The Aesthetics of Randomness 253 Chapter 17: Locke's Madmen, or Bell Curves in the Wrong Places 274 Chapter 18: The Uncertainty of the Phony 286 Chapter 19: Half and Half, or How to Get Even with the Black Swan 295 |