出版时间及名称】：2010年4月美国软件行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根大通
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：111
【目录或简介】：
We believe most software companies should at least meet MarQ
expectations, which generally imply below-normal seasonal patterns,
which we view as unlikely. In addition, JunQ estimates for most are in line
with normal historical trends, implying minimal risk to guidance.
• Expectations for less-than-normal 4Q-1Q seasonality imply low 1Q
risk. While we anticipate relatively normal seasonality off a very low
base, “real” expectations for 4Q to 1Q software license growth (on an
organic, constant currency basis) generally imply less-than-normal
seasonality for most, especially for BMC, CTXS, and VMW. These
companies would materially exceed current estimates if they simply
reported results in line with normal seasonality.
• Other positives. We expect software companies to benefit from a
modestly improving macro backdrop, where improving capex trends
should eventually translate into new license growth. In addition, we
believe software valuations remain generally (but not universally)
attractive.
• Neutral (to positive) factors. FebQ results provide a positive outlook
despite uneven share performances post results. In addition, improving
"real" YoY growth off of a low base and an FX tailwind of +2.4% should
provide favorable optics beyond real business momentum, though this
FX benefit is down about a percentage point since guidance was given.
• Quarter positioning. Though the majority of our coverage universe
appear well positioned relative to MarQ expectations, the following
appear best positioned: BMC, CA, CTXS, LOGM, MFE, MSFT, QSFT,
SWI, SYMC, TLEO, and VMW. However, we caution investors that
software stocks that have rallied as being most leveraged to economic
improvement may be at risk over the longer term (BMC, CTXS, MSFT,
PRO, and VMW).
Table of Contents
Summary...................................................................................3
Software Stocks Likely to Exceed Expectations of Below Historical Seasonal
Patterns ........................................................................................................................5
A Look at “Real” Year-over-Year Expectations..........................................................8
Recent Results Provide Window into March .............................................................10
FX Benefit About 1% Less than When Guidance Given...........................................11
Software Remains Attractive in a Tempered Macro Recovery..................................12
Software’s 2010 Performance....................................................................................14
Valuations Remain Attractive....................................................................................14
BMC Software, Inc. .................................................................17
CA Inc. .....................................................................................21
Citrix Systems, Inc. ................................................................24
LogMeIn...................................................................................28
McAfee.....................................................................................31
Microsoft .................................................................................34
PROS Holdings.......................................................................38
Quest Software .......................................................................41
SolarWinds..............................................................................44
SYBASE, Inc. ..........................................................................47
Symantec ................................................................................50
Taleo........................................................................................54
VMware....................................................................................57
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