库存无需过度担心，空调寡头健康过冬
——格力库存问题深度分析
目 录
1．库存影响企业盈利的路径分析································2
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2．空调历史灾年回顾：2002 年和2005 年3
2.1 2002 年：新进入者涌入引发“雨季”价格战3
2.2 2005 年：预期落空中迎来产能释放高峰4
3．行业库存比上两次灾年严重吗？ 6
3.1 库存绝对量同比开始下降6
3.2 库存增速与内销量增速之落差收窄7
3.3 生产增速低于销量增速8
3.4 库存指数低于前两次历史高点9
3.5 渠道库存分析的角度9
4．公司比较的角度看格力库存 11
4.1 收入增速快于行业平均水平11
4.2 库存逐季明显回落12
4.3 预收账款保持健康增长12
5．原材料降价对存货减值的影响 13
5.1 对原材料存货的影响13
5.2 对产成品存货的影响14
6．结论与投资建议 15
6.1 主要结论：库存无需过度担心15
6.2 盈利预测与投资建议