India Strategy Chartbook
India
Strategy Chartbook
India Strategy Team
Morgan Stanley India Company Private
Limited+
Ridham Desai
Ridham.Desai@morganstanley.com
+91 22 2209 7790
Sheela Rathi
Sheela.Rathi@morganstanley.com
+91 22 2209 7730
• Get ready for volatility in May
India is in the midst of a rally driven by global financial markets. At the same
time, India faces an event risk in the form of elections. The elections will
decide the strength of the next government and its ability to execute on fiscal
and growth policies. We think for India to outperform emerging markets, a
relatively polarized election outcome is important.
• A range-bound market with a 50% chance of extreme outcomes
Based on our probability-weighted scenarios, the market seems to bear
downside risk from current levels in 2009. That said, we think there is still a
one-in-two likelihood of getting extreme outcomes linked to the election
results (and hence fiscal response), the NPL cycle, the pace and extent of
corporate sector operational deleveraging, and global developments. Our
probability-weighted Sensex outcome for December 2009 is 9,224.
• Sell the rallies – it is still a bear market
The worst could be over but it does not mean that a new bull market will start
unless we have sorted out at least two of the above three factors (NPL cycle,
earnings and fiscal situation). We still think this is a bear market rather than a
new bull market. Hence, tactically we would sell the rallies rather than buy the
dips. Markets do not necessarily lead economic or earnings troughs.
Of course, whether the October 2008 low was the absolute bottom of this
bear market or not will still likely be a function of global financial markets.
• Our portfolio position: Stay defensive
Our biggest overweight positions are in Consumer Staples and Healthcare,
whereas our biggest underweight positions are in Industrials, Financials, and
Materials. Strategically, we remain in a bear market and continue to hold
cash to take advantage of that. Long-term investors with low sensitivity to
timing can afford to be more aggressive with the understanding that patience
pays in bear markets. The election results could trigger portfolio changes.