摩根大通：中国经济20090123
China: Chinese trade flows: Global recession vs. fiscal
stimulus
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• Sharp decline in Asian exports sent early signs of plunge in G3 final
demand.
• China outperforming other major Asian exporters; lower end consumer
goods better than tech.
• Commodity imports and machinery benefited from past stimulus; boost
may be smaller this time.
• With global GDP contracting 4.5% annualized in 4Q08, the sharpest
decline in over a quarter century, trade flows in Asia have fallen
significantly. The global economy is expected to contract at a similarly
severe pace in 1Q, as the latest data on G3 final demand continues to
disappoint, before recovering moderately in 2H as policy stimulus starts
to kick in. Potential further disappointment in global final demand is thus
a major risk for Asian exporters in 2009.
• Greater China exports and global demand
• When Asian exports fell sharply last October-November, one of the
suggested explanations was a temporary interruption of trade financing.
However, subsequent data releases pointed to the sharp weakening in G3
final demand toward year end, with very weak US retail sales (chart) and
a severe contraction in G3 capital goods orders, as the primary factor
behind the collapse. Going forward, this early warning by Asian exports
may also be helpful in gauging whether the moderate 2H09 global