Forty-one year dividend payback in Asian equities — Based on current dividend
streams, investors get their money back in a mere 21 years in the case of
Taiwan, 30 years in the case of Malaysia and 52 years in the case of China. In
the case of India, investors need to wait a full 113 years for their payback. This
itself is an all-time high, beating the 1994 peak and 2000 peak by 18 and 6
years.
Banks have the shortest payback period, energy the longest — Investors get their
money back in just 24 years with banks, 32 in telecoms and 36 in technology.
For the industrial sector it takes 44 years and for energy 47 years. While for
banks and technology these are at the low end of their historical ranges, for
industrials and energy these are at the top end of the post-1990 ranges.
In uncertain times, go for imminent cash flows, not capital appreciation —
Short duration outperforms ahead of a growth slowdown and during the
slowdown. Being overweight long duration is a sure way to underperform. We
highlight which stocks to own and avoid. Buying short duration with strong
long-term EPS forecasts has outperformed on average in 75% of the months
since 2001.
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