Report Title:Awaiting the Expectation Recovery
Analyst:Alan Yuan，June Wu，Brigitte Liu
Type:Strategy Research/A-share Investment Strategy
Date:2009-09-04
Sector/Sub-sector:/
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Rating:***
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[Key Words]:
[Summary]:Fundamental expectations:From over-optimistic to over-pessimistic
Residential property market sales shrunk, unable to meet the expectations of the peak season around September and October. Investment products have completed inventory replenishing, and industrial growth will return to the level that can be supported by actual demand. Steel inventories are experiencing counter-cyclical increase, once again resulting in destocking or the suppressing of end-production. The shift in government policies towards “structural readjustment” will result in limited room for stronger-than-expected investment growth.
Lower expectations that the economy will rapidly overheat and higher expectations that the economy may again reach bottom.
We are of the view that China’s V-shaped economic recovery may experience a certain level of fluctuation on the way up, but both extremely optimistic and extremely pessimistic scenarios are highly unlikely. We continue to have confidence in China’s economic outlok and the government’s ability to regulate it.[The End]