Table of Contents
Nordic banks valuation ..................................................................... 3
How much of the bank rally is left?................................................................4
Where are the valuations? ......................................................................5
Q3: poor top-line, but LLP peak drives EPS upgrades.................... 7
Q3 key points.................................................................................7
Weaker top-lines: cyclical downturn and lack of structural growth............8
Margins: balance sheet restructuring starting to hurt .....................10
Nordic asset quality: LLP peak in 2009 supports “recovery trade” ...........14
Baltic asset quality: NPL formation slowing…for now......................17
Company section ............................................................................. 18
Danske Bank..................................................................................... 19
Results can confirm recovery story....................................................19
Valuation and risks .................................................................................21
DnB NOR .......................................................................................... 23
Top-line visibility; expect better 2010 LLP outlook.................................23
Valuation and risks .......................................................................25
Handelsbanken ................................................................................ 27
Positive to Swedish asset quality..........................................................27
Valuation and risks .............................................................................29
Nordea.............................................................................................. 31
Management statement takes edge off Q3 bear case ...........................31
Valuation and risks ..............................................................................33
SEB.................................................................................................... 35
Very weak Q3 well flagged; clearing the decks for 2010 .......................35
Valuation and risks ............................................................................37
Swedbank ........................................................................................ 39
Short-term recovery story; long-term “shrinking” story.........................39
Valuation and risks ................................................................................41
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