Table of Contents
Investment Thesis ............................................................................. 3
Outlook and top picks ........................................................................3
Valuation ...................................................................................................3
Risks .......................................................................................................3
Dynamic provisioning – Bank income and bank capital................. 4
Key summary points ..................................................................................4
New development – the introduction of statistical provisioning method..........4
Regulatory framework – A proactive response to cyclicality...........................4
Case study - Spanish experience suggests provision charges could increase......8
Near term negative to earnings but removes risk of pro-cyclicality longer term....9
CCB and Citic Bank – our top picks....................................................11
At the crossroads of a changing monetary policy ........................ 14
Key summary points ......................................................................14
Monetary outlook – Inflation to surprise on upside by mid 2010 .........14
Case study – 2004-08 rate hike cycle improved margins and earnings.....17
Margin is already recovering, with or without rate hikes ..................20
Loan growth – a matter of supply and demand............................ 23
Key summary points ......................................................................23
Supply easing not tightening............................................................23
YTD loan growth – share of bills and large cap banks falling...........24
Appendix A....................................................................................... 27
Yield changes for 1H09......................................................................27
Appendix B....................................................................................... 28
Dynamic provisioning – the Spanish way............................................28
Company Profiles............................................................................. 29
ICBC .................................................................................................. 30
China Construction Bank ................................................................ 34
Bank of China................................................................................... 38
Bank of Communications................................................................ 42
China Merchants Bank-H ................................................................ 46
China CITIC Bank ............................................................................. 50
Shanghai Pudong Bank................................................................... 54
Industrial Bank................................................................................. 58
China Minsheng Bank ..................................................................... 62
Shenzhen Dev Bank......................................................................... 66