Table of Contents
Valuation and target price .............................................................. 3
Upgrading ratings, target prices; shifting valuation benchmark to adjusted NAV based on
FY3/11 (FY10/12) forecasts ..................................................................... 3
Adjusted NAV (pre-tax) methodology.............................................. 7
Target prices in the real estate sector ................................... 8
Investment ratings, valuations and risks...................................... 10
Mitsui Fudosan: Buy rating, TP ¥2,100 ............................ 10
Mitsubishi Estate: Buy rating, TP ¥2,100 ............................. 10
Sumitomo R&D: Hold rating, TP ¥1,900 ..................................... 11
Tokyu Land: Hold rating, TP ¥480 ............................................... 11
Tokyo Tatemono: Hold rating, target price ¥600....................... 13
Earnings trend and share price outlook ....................................... 19
Owing to our forecast revisions, we expect earnings to recover moderately after bottoming
out in FY3/10 ............................................................................... 19
Share price momentum.......................................................................... 19
We think the present time marks the bottom for Big Three market weightings ..... 20
Mitsubishi Estate our top pick......................................................... 20
Fundamentals outlook .................................................................. 24
Rental office vacancies and new asking rentals ................................... 24
Trends in cap rates and rates of change in expected rents ................. 30
Real estate rental outlook.................................................................. 32
Earnings assumptions and revisions ............................................ 34
Assumptions underlying earnings estimates: we are leaving our assumptions unchanged
because negative factors have arisen earlier than we previously anticipated ........ 34
Companies’ financial condition .................................................... 39
Mitsui Fudosan (8801)...................................................................... 39
Mitsubishi Estate (8802)................................................................. 41
Sumitomo R&D (8830) ........................................................................... 43
Tokyu Land (8815) .............................................................................. 45
Tokyo Tatemono (8804)........................................................................ 47
Share price performance .............................................................. 49
Real estate sector monthly share price performance ..................................... 49
Monthly share price performance of main stocks....................................... 50
|
