We argue that strong Asian demand will
drive a stronger-than-expected earnings
recovery for western machinery makers
􀀗 Most of these names have in the two
previous cycles beaten prior peak
earnings in only year two of an upturn
􀀗 We upgrade target prices for Neutral (V)
rated Alfa Laval (SEK87), Atlas Copco
(SEK95), and SKF (SEK118), and
Overweight (V) rated Sandvik (SEK100)
and Volvo (SEK85)
Why Sweden’s machinery makers
will bounce back stronger, faster
Our core thesis in this report is that the profitability of
western equipment makers – such as the Swedish machinery
firms we review here – have more to gain from the
continuation of the Dongfeng (as we term the wave of
heightened investment spending coming out of Asia) than
they have to lose from the collapse of easy credit in the
West. Their exposure to the Dongfeng is partly direct (China
ranges from 2% to 11% as a percentage of group sales for
the firms under review in this report). But it is mostly
indirect, since strong Chinese demand pulls commodity
prices and therefore stimulates investment spending
worldwide in a whole series of industries.
This Asian tailwind will in our view augment these
companies’ demonstrable track record of early cyclicality in
earnings growth. The surprising fact is that all of the four of
the companies reviewed in this report for which we have
extended financial histories (ie Atlas Copco, Sandvik, SKF
and Volvo) have, in both of the last two global economic
recoveries (starting in 1993 and 2003 respectively) beaten
previous peak earnings in only year two of the upturn, ie in
1994 and 2004 respectively. They have, moreover, beaten by
wide margins: in aggregated reported EBIT terms by 35% in
1994 and by 46% in 2004. A repeat of such a performance in
2011e is obviously subject to several material risks.
However, it is an outcome which remains heavily underdiscounted,
in our view. We stick with Sandvik and Volvo
as our Overweight (V) picks within the group, offering 39%
and 36% potential return to our target prices respectively.