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新加坡银行业研究报告2009年9月(瑞士信贷)

文件格式:Pdf 可复制性:可复制 TAG标签: 银行业 新加坡 瑞士信贷 2009年9月 点击次数: 更新时间:2010-01-11 16:21
介绍

Can Singapore banks achieve 2x P/Bs again? In May 2007, just before
the credit crisis struck, Singapore banks were trading at post-Asian financial
crisis high P/B multiples: DBS at 1.9x, and UOB and OCBC at 2.2x. Their
ROEs in 1H07 worked out to 13.3% for DBS and UOB, and 15.9% for OCBC.
For them to achieve those multiples again, DBS would need to earn an ROE
of 12.8% (our 2011 forecast is 10.2%), UOB 13.2% (2011E 12.9%) and
OCBC 12.2% (2011E 11.0%) as per the Gordon growth model. So, even in
2011, which is expected to be a “normalised” year again, banks may not
reach their recent peak P/Bs. DBS currently trades at 1.15x 2009E, and
UOB/OCBC at 1.54x 2009E.

Are 2011 forecasts conservative? Singapore banks are enjoying some of
the strongest consensus earnings upgrades of Asian banks. However, 2011
profits are still projected to be just 1.5% ahead of 1H07 (annualised). GDP
has been revised up and the asset quality cycle seems milder than feared.

What about a 2011 bull case? Using more generous assumptions, we find
bull-case ROEs in 2011 could be roughly 1.5% higher than the base-case
forecasts. In that case, DBS would still fall short of the 12.8% needed to
reach 1.9x P/B, while UOB and OCBC would be comfortably ahead.

UOB top pick; DBS should perform well when rates start rising: UOB is
the highest ROE bank in Singapore and we believe it has built a sustainable
200-300 bp ROE lead over peers. While we have used 2011 base-case
ROEs for the target prices of DBS and OCBC, in UOB we have used a lower
figure = potential upside.
 

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