高盛点评新东方——2009年2月
What's changed
In response to investor demand, we re-introduce “The Seasonalizer”, a
modeling tool derived from the past to forecast EDU’s future. Since EDU only
reports new student enrollments (which generate cash inflows), as opposed
to active students (which generate revenue), the mismatch between
enrollments and revenue in a given quarter sometimes perplexes investors.
For example, last quarter EDU reported 13% yoy enrollment growth and
suggested that pricing per enrollment was up high teens, but achieved 40%
(renminbi) revenue growth. We believe this was because active students
were up faster than enrollments – a blend of 13% yoy enrollment growth in
3QFY09 and 24% yoy in 4QFY09. We convert new enrollments into active
students each quarter using “The Seasonalizer”, which relies on six years’
worth of enrollment and revenue history to estimate what proportion of new
enrollments become active in a given quarter.